The wait is over, and the College Football Season is back. We already saw a major upset in Week 0 as Georgia Tech stunned #10 Florida State with a game winning FG. SMU and Montana State, both heavy faves, needed last second touchdowns to win their games against subpar competition. So we’re already off to a blazing start as the race to Atlanta is off and running.
And speaking of waiting, we finally have an expanded playoff format in College Football and will get to see more teams play for the chance to raise the CFP trophy. We are also seeing the unveiling of super conferences as the Big 10, ACC and Big 12 helped break-up the Pac 12 and help invent super conferences. Now we’ll see the much-anticipated Rutgers vs USC rivalry take place on the field (ok, that’s some sarcasm). But it is something we’ll have to get used to seeing as you will have to double check your papers and searches when watching a game to see if it’s actually in-conference or not.
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL 12-TEAM PLAYOFF PREDICTION
The NCAA competition board finally agreed to a structure that allowed more teams a shot at determining the best college football team on the field. Last year’s decision to leave an undefeated Power 5 team out of the playoffs just showed how much power boosters and big universities have on the process. While there will still be good teams left out of a 12-team playoff, it will surely remove some of the big-program bias and subjectivity the selection committee displayed in seasons past.
If you’re not familiar with the playoff tree, let’s break it down here. The top four teams will receive a first-round bye. Meaning the bottom eight teams (seed 5 thru 12) will have to win four games to win the championship. As for the top four teams, these will be the highest ranked Conference Champions. The 5th conference champion will be seeded between 5 thru 12 depending on their ranking. If they are somehow outside the top-12, they will be seeded 12th. This is all notable because a team like Notre Dame is not eligible for the top-4 teams, in other words they can’t get a bye, because they are not affiliated with a conference. And when we speak about Conferences, this includes all and not just the Power-4.
The first round will be played on December 20th (Friday) and December 21st (Saturday). The higher ranked team will be the home team and games will be played on their campus or at a site designated by the home team. The quarterfinals, semifinals and championship will be played at bowl sites and the committee will assign those.
So that’s the basic structure and there are obviously some more innate details. But the important thing is that we have a true playoff structure that will better allow teams not in the upper echelon of college football to compete for a championship.
#12 Seed – BOISE STATE BRONCOS
The 12 seed will be the nation’s underdog. Likely coming from a non-traditional power conference, we have a lot of strong teams to consider in this spot. But I’m going with the Broncos here based on experience, skill position players and schedule. First is the schedule. Boise resides in the Mountain West conference and avoids potential pitfalls in Fresno State, Air Force and Colorado State. They also face former Pac-12 opponents in Washington State and Oregon State but both are to be played on the blue field in Boise. Winning those games against former Power-5 teams can boost Boise’s ranking.
Secondly, their experience is key as they return most of their O-Line and defense. They will potentially have 15 returning starters which is the most in the MWC. As for skill position players, the Broncos have one of the top RB’s in the nation in Ashton Jeanty and have a blue-chip QB in the waiting in Malachi Nelson (a USC recruit). The key will be how Boise performs in their early season matchup at Oregon. That will go a long way with voters as none of the other “non-power 5” teams have a Goliath on their schedule. I’ll say Boise impresses in that outing and then takes care of business across the MWC and receives a long over-due chance to battle with the big boys in the College Football Playoffs.
#11 Seed – KANSAS STATE WILDCATS
I have a feeling the new look Big 12 will find a way to get two teams into the College Football Playoffs. And by doing so, they’ll leave out one of their defectors, the Oklahoma Sooners. I landed on the Kansas State Wildcats for a few reasons. But the primary is HC Chris Klieman. Much like my affinity for Kansas and HC Lance Leopold, Klieman came from a small town and recognized the Wildcats needed to be rebuilt, from the bottom up. And he did so, brick by brick, culminating in a 9-4 season in 2023 and a victory in the Pop Tarts Bowl over NC State.
But my second biggest reason for wearing the purple this year is sophomore QB Avery Johnson. Gone is his roadblock in QB Will Howard who transferred to Ohio State. Johnson finally got his time in the sun in the Pop Tarts Bowl and exploded for 71 rushing yards and a total of three TD’s (2 passing and 1 rushing) to earn MVP honors. He also gets the safety blanket of having one of the best RB’s in the nation in DJ Giddens behind him.
Then there’s the schedule which looks favorable as the Wildcats avoid conference favorite Utah. They also have two of their toughest tests at home in Manhattan, Kansas and a stacked Oklahoma State.
This team is on the up as shown by recent years results. They lost four games last year all by 8 points or less. The defense looks solid and the offense has star power plus a veteran O-Line.
#10 Seed – PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
As with the Big 12, there are going to be some tough choices by the committee regarding the Big 10. Will they get four teams? Or will it stop at three or even two? Based on recent years, Penn State has always been good enough to be in a 12-team playoff. In fact, they would have been in a similar format in 6 of the last 8 seasons. They just haven’t been good enough to leapfrog Michigan or Ohio State which held them out of the old format every year. But because of the realignment of the Big 10, they found Michigan drop-off the schedule. And they don’t get to see Oregon this year. Add to that, their toughest games, outside of a trip to Pasadena, are all at home in Happy Valley (#2 Ohio State, UCLA, and Washington).
The other factor is that this should be the breakout year for junior QB Drew Allard. Last year was a transition into the starting role and he struggled at times. But now that he’s had a year under his belt, the highly recruited QB from Ohio will look to take control and be the star that Nittany Lions fans have been waiting for. Additionally, they brought in passing guru Andy Kotelnicki to take over the OC role where he thrived at his last stop in Kansas. And they brought in ex-Ohio State WR Julian Flemming to help stretch the field. Lastly, Penn State was #2 in total defense last year and returns 6 starters. Watch out for LB/DE Adbul Carter to blow up this year with Chop Robinson onto the NFL.
Lastly, if this is about Penn State and Michigan just look at the schedules. Michigan has to play three pre-season top 10 teams in #4 Texas, #3 Oregon and #2 Ohio State. They also have to travel out to the Pacific Northwest and face a pesky Washington team who they saw in the Championship game and will surely out for blood. Because of the obstacles in Michigan’s way, I’m betting Penn State will pull ahead in the polls and leap into the Playoffs.
#9 Seed – OLE MISS REBELS
I wouldn’t call this a surprise pick as we saw the ascension of Ole Miss last year when they finished the season with a convincing bowl win against Penn State. By doing so, they finished with an 11-2 record and 9th in the final rankings. Surprisingly enough, it was the first 11-win season in school history. So the expectations are as high as they’ve ever been in Oxford. And HC Lane Kiffin is having none of it trying to brush off all pre-season hype.
But there’s reason to believe and it starts with the up-tempo offense and it’s signal caller in QB Jaxson Dart. The Rebels QB is a dual-threat and can beat you in many ways. He’s got a great receiving corps to throw to this year with Tre Harris returning and adding Antwane Wells (from S. Carolina) through the transfer portal. The loss of RB Quinshon Judkins was surprising and will hurt but the system and the pace is the key to this offense. RB’s Ulysses Bentley and Henry Parrish will be able to pick up where Judkins left off albeit they aren’t the runner that Quinshon was.
On defense, the transfer portal brought in another star as the Rebels convinced DT JJ Pegues to defect from A&M. He’ll bolster a strong D-Line that has a great LB corps behind it.
Lastly, the schedule is very favorable as their only tough road test is a trip to Baton Rouge (who they beat last year and there’s no more Jayden Daniels to worry about). There’s no Alabama on the schedule and Georgia travels to Oxford late in the season. They do pick-up Oklahoma but that game is also at home and I’m certain Lane Kiffin will want to give them a welcoming experience to SEC play. This team should go 10-2 at a minimum with the possibility of more. And we’ll finally get to see the Lane Train in a playoff game that matters. To me, that’s worth the price of backing the Rebels this year. Get your popcorn ready because this season is setup for fun at Ole Miss.
#8 Seed – MIAMI HURRICANES
If Mario Cristobal wasn’t coaching the Hurricanes, I may have them winning the ACC. But I simply cannot get past the blunders he’s made in both Oregon and now Miami. He’s a skilled coach but his fire can often work against him in crucial situations. And he’s just 12-13 in his first two seasons at Miami. However, with that being said, he did a heck-of-a job in the transfer portal and has set up his team well to make a big run this year. Let’s start with the QB situation. The Hurricanes went after the prized FA and brought in Cam Ward from Washington State. Ward had two great seasons at Wazzu posting a 65.6% completion percentage and throwing 48 TD’s while scoring 13 TD’s on the ground. The other key piece, who I had an affinity for from 3000+ miles away, is the addition of RB Damien Martinez from Oregon State. Martinez is a bulldog and gamer who racked up over 2100 yards and 6 yds/carry in two years for the Beavers.
The receiving corps is deep too as the Canes return their Swiss army knife in Xavier Restrepo as well as Jacolby George. Add to that the O-Line is a strength and you have a very dangerous offense in South Florida.
In 20 years in the ACC, the Canes have only been to the championship game once which was back in 2017. I bring that up because I believe this will be their best year since that run seven years ago. The schedule is as soft as it gets with a major conference with the toughest games coming at home vs Va Tech and Florida State. Miami avoids Clemson and NC State and has out-of-conference games with Florida, Florida A&M, Ball State and USF. This looks like a 9 to 10 win season and trip back to Charlotte. Which means we are going to see plenty of Michael Irvin and “U” hand signals throughout this fall. So buckle-up and get your noise cancelling headphones charged because it looks like it’s possible “The U” is back. That is until they face an SEC team in the first round of the playoffs.
#7 Seed – NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH
The Irish hooked their hopes and dreams to QB Sam Hartman last season. And unfortunately for them, and him, the proficient passing game that was expected never surfaced. So what does Notre Dame do to right that mistake? The Irish jump back in the transfer portal and go after a Sam Hartman like QB in ex-Duke signal caller Riley Leonard. Maybe the 2nd time will be a charm. But maybe more significant than the QB, Notre Dame brought over OC Mike Denbrock from LSU to help ignite some fire into a flameless air attack.
Besides the big moves listed above, Notre Dame did well to bring in new skill position players at RB and WR to help offset the loss of RB Audric Estime while also challenging the current WR room with healthy competition.
The two reasons I like the Irish to make the playoffs are their defense and the schedule. The defense under DC Al Golden ranked seventh in scoring, fifth in total defense, and fifth in yards allowed per play. Notre Dame brings back five starters on that unit including All-American S Xavier Watts and DT Howard Cross III.
As for the schedule, there are three potential pitfalls in Texas A&M (Aug 31), Florida State (Nov 9) and USC (Nov 30). But other than that, they don’t face a team in the top 25 all season. And with 12 teams, they’ll just need to post something in the neighborhood of a 10-2 record to cement themselves into the playoffs. Which means they just have to win 1 of the aforementioned coin-flip games (and I think they’ll win more than that).
So get ready for another edition of Notre Dame playoff football. Hopefully this one doesn’t end like the prior ones and the Irish are actually competitive on the biggest stage come December and January.
#6 Seed – ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
We saw the committee’s affinity for Alabama last year when they found a way to squeeze them in their top-4 albeit with one loss and unspectacular wins against Auburn, Arkansas and A&M. So unless the Tide collapse, and lose more than 3 games, there’s no way they’ll be left out of the inaugural 12-team playoff. And to be honest, if they get through the season with 3-losses or less, it will be deserved because Alabama has one of the toughest schedules of any blue blood program (ranked 10th toughest).
The key will be their early season play as the transition from legendary Nick Saban to Kalen DeBoer may take some adjusting. The good news for DeBoer is that he has one of the Heisman favorites leading his team in QB Jalen Milroe. There were points last season when Milroe was left for dead. But he made a huge improvement after being benched and helped them to a surprising SEC title over powerhouse Georgia.
The defense will be great again in 2024 as they return a great core of LB’s including Deontae Lawson. And the passing game should be solid as DeBoer brings in his offensive game plan from a high octane Washington offense. The key is obviously the continued growth of Milroe and his ability to transition from a slower pace to one that will be much faster under the new coaching staff.
The schedule does bring some pitfalls but the Tide miss Texas and Ole Miss. While they have tough road games in Oklahoma, Tennessee and LSU, this is Bama and they will likely be favored in each game. It’s a new playoff system and a new look Alabama. But it should still be the same old ‘Bama as it comes to being a national powerhouse. They’ll win enough games and be competitive in their losses (or loss) in order to claim a spot in the top-12.
#5 Seed – OREGON DUCKS
The Ducks are arguably a top-3 roster in way of talent in College Football. They were knocking on the College Football playoffs last season but lost out to eventual National Champion runner-up in the Washington Huskies. Two losses to the team northeast of them left a bruise on what was an amazing season. But they’ve retooled in a big way and will take their talents to the Big 10 this season in hopes of showing their toughness and rights to be considered a national powerhouse.
Oregon lost QB Bo Nix and WR Troy Franklin who made up a significant amount of their offense. But all they did was replace those two with the best QB (Dillon Gabriel from Oklahoma) and best WR (Evan Stewart from A&M) in the portal. And they still have weapons at receiver in Tez Johnson, Traeshon Holden and TE Terrance Ferguson.
The Ducks are underrated on defense as they led the Pac 12 in scoring defense last year and allowed just 318 yds/game. They don’t have star power on that side but brought in many solid D1 transfers to help boost their potential.
In the end, it’s HC Dan Lanning and the offense. And both are top notch in College Football. The schedule is manageable but they have tough trips to Wisconsin and the Big House in Michigan. Ohio State is at home, and I do expect the Ducks to win that game. However, a potential rematch in the Championship game may be the tiebreaker between a bye and the need to play a first round game in the playoffs.
#4 Seed – UTAH UTES (BIG 12 CHAMP)
The Utes fell victim to a plethora of injuries last season. They started off hot but couldn’t overcome the lack of depth at key positions and ended up 8-5. But 2024 looks to be promising again as QB Cam Rising is back and says he’s fully ready to go. Also returning from a missed season is TE Brant Kuithe who was one of Rising’s favorite targets in 2022. The Utes were also able to add a vertical threat in USC WR Dorian Singer. Add to that impressive depth at the RB position, and Utah has the best set of weapons in the Big 12.
And speaking of the Big 12, this will be Utah’s first season in that conference as the Pac 12 crumbled and lost most of it’s schools forcing everyone to look for a new home. This new home should be great for Utah as the biggest threats look much less formidable than what they previously faced in Oregon, Washington and USC.
On defense, Utah will once again be formidable. The same unit was 2nd in the Pac 12 in scoring defense and was 13th in the nation in yards allowed per game. As for the schedule, their toughest game will likely be a date in Bedlam against OK State. Their other four road games are against teams with losing records from last season. The home game against Arizona looks troublesome as it comes off the heels of their game at Oklahoma State. But in all, this team should win the Big 12 and only have 1-2 losses on the season. That will be good enough to get them ranked in the top 4 of the playoffs and setup a very interesting game against the Oregon/Boise winner (two familiar foes).
#3 Seed – CLEMSON TIGERS (ACC CHAMP)
It just feels like a Dabo kind of year in Clemson, South Carolina. Not many people are talking about the Tigers. Primarily because of their offensive inefficiencies and lackluster play last year. Which is exactly where Dabo wants you to feel about his team. Because after all, he’s the ultimate underdog and motivator. That’s when his teams play their best.
Clemson suffered losses to Miami, NC State, Florida State, and Duke to finish 9-4. Which showed the gap in the ACC has narrowed and their margin for error is much smaller. And that has to start with an improved offense, especially in the passing game, which we should see in 2024. QB Cade Klubnik was all the talk 2 years ago as a freshman but had a down year as a full time starter. The Tigers finished last in yards/completion in the ACC in 2023. Last! But now Klubnik has endured a full off-season to self-correct and redisplay the talent that made him a promising signal caller. He also has talent in the receiving corps, WR Tyler Brown returns and TE Jake Briningstool is back, to advance the offense.
The defense has been the strong point of this team in years past. And while they lost talent, Dabo has replaced them with star recruits. Once again, the Tigers should be a top defensive unit in the nation and be able to help their offense gain short-fields.
The schedule is also the key here as their toughest game is the opener this weekend vs. Georgia. The only other game against a potential playoff team is when they travel to Tallahassee to face the Seminoles in October. But they’ll have revenge on their mind from last years loss. And they’ll want to stick it to their former QB in DJ Uiagalelei. I don’t love Clemson this year and think they will fizzle in the playoffs due to their offense and young defense. But they’ll be good enough to win an ACC. And Dabo will be sure to tell you about it.
#2 Seed – OHIO STATE (BIG 10 CHAMP)
I’m not sure you need anyone to tell you that Ohio State is good. In reality, they may have the most talented roster in all College Football. But there’s still that cloud hovering over HC Ryan Day as he’s yet to win the big one. Ohio State has lost three straight times to Michigan and hasn’t won a title since the 2014 season. There is a major void in Columbus, OH and anything short of a Championship will be a disappointment. Oh, and beating Michigan.
The Buckeyes were aces in the transfer portal. It started by bringing in QB Will Howard from Kansas State. But then they landed star RB Quinshon Judkins along with Alabama S Caleb Downs. And for good measure, they brought in offensive guru Chip Kelly to run the offense. Finally, Ohio State did what they do best and that’s recruit and bring in the best WR’s in the nation. If you haven’t heard this name before be ready to make it a household name; Jeremiah Smith. He’s inline to be the next great Buckeye receiver and follow in the footsteps of past greats who blessed the horseshoe.
This Ohio State team is loaded. And they are due. They now have a QB that is dynamic and can make the big throws. Additionally, the seas have parted with former Michigan HC Jim Harbaugh leaving for the NFL. The time is now and I see the Buckeyes powering through and winning the Big 10 and setting themselves up for a top-4 seed.
#1 Seed – GEORGIA (SEC CHAMP)
Welcome to the Georgia revenge tour. Realistically, if Georgia made the College Football Playoffs last year (which they likely should have), we could be talking about a 3-time National Champion. And that’s what HC Kirby Smart will be preaching as he leads his Dawgs into the 2024 season. A chance at history didn’t happen so it’s time to show the nation, and the voters, the mistakes made.
The offense looks to be very good once again. If you didn’t know, QB Carson Beck is good at football. The Bulldog signal caller has NFL 1st-round pick written all over him. Georgia also brought in star RB Trevor Etienne Jr to help ignite the backfield. And of course, the Georgia defense will once again be fierce.
The schedule is much tougher in 2024 than it was in 2023. They open with Clemson and have tough road games in Texas and Alabama. But Georgia is just better than most everyone else and will likely be favored in every game. And with revenge on their mind this will be a hungry group of Dawgs that are fully motivated to bite their way to a 3rd title in four years.
FAVORITE BETS:
Kansas State to make the College Football Playoffs +250
Oregon to win the National Championship +700