Part of the reason I started this blog was to be able to get the information I collected out to a broader audience. I have been posting my official picks in Win Daily Sports Discord room (www.windailysports.com) as well as daily on their bet tracker.
That will not stop and that will have some of my more exclusive, and even late night, plays there. Afterall, they have a plethora of info besides just my bets so it’s worth a look. And if you like it, make sure to subscribe (even if it’s for a day) using this link as it helps them track where you are coming from:
But this page is where I get a chance to talk about the process. I’ve been modeling the NBA this year but also tracking every daily box score and spread. Combining those two together have helped me out to a 61-36-1 record ATS in NBA with a +21.4 unit profit. This is coming off a 49-29 ATS in NFL as well 20-11 ATS record in College Football Bowls.
With that information in mind, I started a simplified college basketball model for the conference tournaments. Listen, to model and gain a significant edge, I would need way more time and historical info. Afterall, the books have way more advanced statistical methods as well as data. So the goal was to at least land on a model that came close to Vegas and then identify where there were gaps and then do research on that game. And luckily, that has shown signs of success putting me up over 12 units in the last 4 days. Simple is good, and for those that care I did use a regression model combining key metrics such as ELO ratings, NET and KenPom’s AdjEm.
So enough with the background and let’s get into today’s bets.
FLORIDA +5.5 vs AUBURN (SEC CHAMPIONSHIP @ 1pm)
Between Florida and Wisconsin, I’m not sure who has made me more money in the conference tournament’s. Both have covered all three games this week and both have pulled off surprising outright upsets (Gators over Bama and Wiscy over Purdue).
Today, Florida is looking for their fourth straight victory to claim their first SEC title since 2014. And they’ll have to do it against an Auburn Tigers team that was tied for the 2nd best conference record at 13-5. These teams met once this year, and Florida dominated the game winning 81-65 on their home court. They won the hustle stats by swatting 10 Auburn Tigers shots and coming up with 6 steals.
If you squarely look at ELO ratings, this spread should be closer to 3.5 points. However, KenPom has the gap much wider with an expected spread of nearly 7 points. So wisely, Vegas has landed this one in the middle.
If you haven’t seen Florida play, they have a long and athletic front line with Tyrese Samuel, Alex Condon, and Micah Handlogten all 6’10” or taller (with 2 of the 3 on the floor at almost all times). Their average height is 12th best in the country. And they have skilled guards led by Zyon Pullin, a transfer from UC-Riverside, who shoots 45% from 3-point land.
What they do best is crash the offensive boards (8th best in NCAA), get to the foul line (top 40 in the Nation) and defend the 3 (opponents shoot just 32% from behind the arc). Where Auburn struggles is they foul a ton, ranking 333rd in the country in opponents FT/game. And they allow offensive rebounds at 30.3% which is 239th best in the NCAA.
Styles make fights and I think Florida has the style to give Auburn fits. Just like they did back in Gainesville on Feb 10th. Give me the Gators and the points today in Nashville.
WISCONSIN +3.5 vs ILLINOIS (BIG 10 CHAMPIONSHIP @ 330pm)
The Wisconsin Badgers are a Jeckyl and Hyde type team this year. They’ve rose as high as #6 in the Nation, to then fall out of the top 25 as they lost 8 of their last 11 coming into the Big 10 tournament. But something has clicked of late for HC Greg Gard, and Wisconsin has pulled off three straight impressive wins over Maryland, Northwestern, and Purdue. They’ve done it differently each game, from shooting 64% from three against Maryland to creating 18 TO’s versus Purdue. So you never know which Wisconsin team will show up, but you do know they have multiple ways to win games.
Illinois has been at the top of the Big 10 all season, and had the easier path to the championship game so far as they’ve only had to win 2 games to get to today’s contest with Wisconsin. But they are just 2-5 against teams in KenPom’s top 20 with one of the two wins coming against Wisconsin. While Illinois is solid offensively and plays solid D, they do not create turnovers. And Wisconsin simply doesn’t turn it over anyway. So the Fighting Illini will have to shoot and rebound their way to victory in this game.
And because of that, Wisconsin should get more possessions. As long as they can defend the three-point line, I see the Badgers being able to control tempo and win this game outright. They start four upperclassmen and their best player, sophomore AJ Storr, plays like a senior. If this run shows us anything, they are a team to watch out for in the big dance as they have the coaching and leaders to make a run to the Sweet 16. And who would have thought that just one week ago.