The Phillies enter the 2025 season with little decisions to make roster wise. But that will change after this season as they have expiring contracts of key players (i.e. JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, etc) and the ascension of young stars (i.e. Aiden Miller, Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, Rafael Marchan) that need playing time. Meaning this season could be the last for this core group of Phillies that has been on the precipice of winning a World Series the past three seasons. The pressure is on, and the clock is ticking. Can Philadelphia find the magic that has made this team so much fun? Or will they continue their regression of the last two seasons and fade quietly into a roster remake?
PITCHING
I recently attended Phillies spring training down in sunny Clearwater, Florida. Boots on the ground, ears to the locals voices, and eyes on the prize. We took in everything in a span of four days to get a true pulse of this team.
First, the good things. This team can pitch. Well outside of Taijuan Walker who I hope to only see in blowouts. The Phillies finished 2nd in the MLB last season with a 3.81 ERA. Their starting pitching was 3rd with a 3.88 ERA and 4th overall in innings pitched.
Speaking of spring, let’s start with Aaron Nola, who was outside working his craft every morning. We would get to the stadium around 10am each day, and there was Nola getting his work in. And when he wasn’t, he was tweaking his delivery and release with pitching coach Caleb Cotham. For a baseball purist, it was amazing to see the behind the scenes work Nola was putting in. He had an average year, by his standards, last season. He looks motivated by that, as well as the fact this team has major moves ahead, to get it right this year. I expect a jump in his production, even in his 11th year on the team.
At the top of the rotation is Zack Wheeler, who is a top Cy Young candidate. In Florida, we witnessed him mow through the Twins lineup on Friday allowing just 1 ER. And even that was on weak contact. One key to this team will be newly acquired Jesus Luzardo who has been topping out at 98-99 mph on his fastball. Luzardo, at his best, is a top of the rotation pitcher. However, his fastball doesn’t have a lot of movement. So if the velocity isn’t there, or location is off, he then becomes a back of the rotation pitcher. We’ve seen the good and bad from Luzardo, lots of hard contact but also good velo on his pitches.
At the 4th starting spot is Cristopher Sanchez who will start the home opener against the Rockies. He could challenge for a Cy Young in the near future as well. Even as soon as 2025. Sanchez bulked up in the offseason and added velocity to his fastball. Which is considerable since his changeup was already one of the best pitches in baseball. Separating the change in velocity between the two pitches will be a weapon for the southpaw who pitched brilliantly in 2024.
The 5th spot is in flux. Ranger Suarez is likely hitting the injured list to start the season, which is an annual tradition for the Phillies. That leaves the last spot open to someone like Taijuan Walker, Tyler Philips or Joe Ross, who came over as a free agent in the offseason. After Walker’s horrific performance against the Yankees last Wednesday, he should be out of consideration. However, the Phillies owe so much money to Walker and are desperately trying to get something out of their investment. The Phillies will not be in a rush to show off Andrew Painter as they’d like to keep his innings manageable this year. Unfortunately, all signs point to Walker so hopefully Ranger gets his back straightened out quickly.
The bullpen also looks to be a strength. Gone are two big pieces in Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez. But in comes Jordan Romano who has past success in the closer role. And they still have big arms in Jose Alvarado, Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm. There are also solid arms returning in Tyler Banks and Jose Ruiz. The one thing I’m asking for is that manager Rob Thompson settle on 1-2 guys to close. The constant swinging door of 9th inning arms has proven to be taxing on some of the players (see Jeff Hoffman’s playoffs last year) and the fans.
BATTING
Looking at the lineup, there are some major questions that still need to be answered. First is the Schwarber conundrum. He had one of his best seasons last year in the leadoff spot. His homers were down, from 47 to 38. But his average rose over 50 points from the 2023 season. And he showed he could hit both lefties and righties. But the problem with using him at the top is his homers often turn to just one-run shots. And his speed, while improved, can clog up the bases. Trea Turner is a natural leadoff hitter based on his wheels and contact rate. My ideal lineup this season would look something like:
- Trea Turner
- Bryce Harper
- Kyle Schwarber
- Nick Castellanos
- Alec Bohm
- Max Kepler
- JT Realmuto
- Bryon Stott
- Brandon Marsh
Some will scoff at the idea of lefty/lefty being back to back at the top of the order. But again, both Harper and Schwarber have proven they can hit lefties. And this would force other teams to throw to Harper at the fear of having the Phillies best power hitter behind him.
The other question in the lineup is at CF. Based on recent moves, it looks like Brandon Marsh has the full time role as the Phillies have publicly said he’s the starting CF this year. That leaves Johan Rojas as a bench player to fill in late in games for defense and give Marsh or Kepler a day off. Marsh needs to have a solid year, particularly hitting lefties where he’s struggled in the past. The Phillies need offensive production at the CF spot. They were 30th in the league in OPS at CF last season.
Lastly, the bench roles will be interesting. The Phillies designated backup catcher and lead motivator Garrett Stubbs, leaving the backup catcher role to Rafael Marchan. One other position will be saved for Edmundo Sosa who fills the utility IF position well. That leaves one spot open, ideally for an OF and all around player. Look for Buddy Kennedy and Kody Clemens to be in the mix to break camp with the big team. Both are out of options and while Kody is the better player and bat, the Phillies may opt for the RH bat in Kennedy.
PREDICTION:
The Phillies are loaded with talent and do have a top-heavy farm system that is ready to produce. They should once again push for 88-94 wins making them a playoff contender. The pitching is deep and talented and will carry the team during the season. Barring major injuries, the Phillies starting staff is top 3 in baseball and could once again be at the top of the league in ERA.
The offense is still a major concern for me. The waiving at pitches outside of the zone hasn’t seemed to change. I witnessed Castellanos swing at 75% of the pitches he saw in the three games I was in Florida for. This included several in the dirt. Harper was also uber-aggressive, swinging at a 60%+ clip. And also offering at pitches outside the zone. The same can be said for Turner. The Phillies situational hitting was poor too. With runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out, Realmuto failed to put a ball in play and struck out. The long leg kick is still there.
The bright spots for me were Kepler and Bohm. The newly acquired LF, Max Kepler made quality contact over and over again. In fact, he reached base three times from the leadoff spot and stole a base. He’s likely not a candidate to be there on this team, but showed traits that could push him into that spot in a pinch. As for Bohm, he made solid contact on the regular. Most were hard hit balls to RF, which is a good sign. He’ll likely never be a 30 homerun hitter, but if he can stick to the gaps he will be a valuable bat in this lineup.
In the end, I see the Phillies headed towards a Wild Card berth. Unless the offense shows better discipline, they’ll be susceptible once October begins. Ultimately, they’ll need to play better after July, which was an issue in 2024. The record was misleading as the Phillies stumbled down the stretch playing just 0.500 ball for the last 2.5 months of the season.
With that said, I predict a record of 90-72 with a 2nd place finish in the National League East. Zack Wheeler will battle with Paul Skenes for Cy Young with the former getting enough votes to gain well deserved hardware that has eluded him the last few seasons. I have Bryce Harper and Trea Turner with bounce back seasons as they will both push towards 0.300 batting average. The plate discipline and bullpen, particularly the late inning usage, will be the difference between missing the playoffs or getting into it for the fourth straight year.