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Which brings us to today. One of the single greatest sports days on the calendar each year. The opening day of March Madness. We’ve all probably had our stories about celebrating the craziness of watching 16 games in a 12 hour span. Who can forget Tyus Edney taking it the full length of the court for a nail-biting win that ultimately led UCLA to the national championship. How about Bryce Drew and Valpo? Or more recently, those gritty Oakland Golden Grizzlies knocking off blue blood Kentucky backed by 32 points off the bench from Jack Gohlke. Madness my friends!
We’re going to do something cool for this tournament, and that’s pick all 63 games against the spread. Realistically, that’s a bad idea for your bank roll. And I will not bet every game nor advise you do unless you vary the size of each bet, focusing on hammering only the ones you love and sprinkling on the ones you want to play for entertainment. But for the readers out there, I want to include info on each game in case you’re dialed in on a contest that doesn’t fall on my radar.
So we’ll make three groups, BEST BETS (1.5 to 2 units), NORMAL BETS (1 unit), and FUN BETS (0 to 0.5 units). Now, let’s lace up the old Converse sneaks, make a few odd stretching movements, and hit the hardwood for what is going to be an awesome two weeks of betting. Just don’t pull any muscles in the process.
Feel free to read my quick breakdown of each game. But in short, here are my plays for today (Day Games Posted, Night Games coming by 12pm):
BEST BETS (1.5 to 2.0 units):
- Creighton +3.5 vs Louisville
NORMAL BETS (1.0 units):
- High Point +7.5 over Purdue
- Wisconsin -16.5 over Montana
FUN BETS (0.5 units):
- Houston -28.5 over SIEU
2025 Tourney Record: 2-2
THURSDAY MARCH 20th – ROUND 1
Game 1: #9 Creighton Blue Jays +3.5 vs #8 Louisville Cardinal (1215pm)
First year HC Pat Kelsey led the Cardinals to a 27-7 record overall including 18-2 in ACC play. They’re led by two fantastic guards in Chucky Hepburn and Terrence Edwards. And we all know guard play is so important in the Tourney. However, I’m backing the dogs in this one as I think Creighton has the experience (8 tourney wins last 5 years) and the x-factor in 7-footer Ryan Kalkbrenner. Creighton’s weakness in NY was their defense in the paint. That’s not a concern here and I believe Steve Ashworth and Jamiya Neal will be able to defend the great L’ville guards.
PICK: Creighton Blue Jays +2.5
Game 2: #13 High Points vs #4 Purdue Boilermakers -7.5 (1240pm)
We can name so many head scratchers by the Committee. And Purdue as a #4 would be right up there. The Boilermakers have struggled down the stretch losing 6 of their last 9 games including an 18 point loss to Michigan in the Big 10 tournament. High Point can shoot the three. They average over 80 points per game and are ranked 25th in offensive rating according to KenPom.com. Purdue’s defense hasn’t been great allowing a 52.1% effective FG percentage, ranking 241st in the country.
PICK: High Point Panthers +7.5
Game 3: #14 Montana Grizzlies vs #3 Wisconsin Badgers -16.5 (130pm)
This isn’t your Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin Badgers. Greg Gard’s team had an identity change in 2025 and they’ve now turned into a high flying offensive team, well high flying for Wisconsin. The Badgers have the 13th best offensive rating according to KenPom.com. They don’t shoot the three-pointer great, but they shoot is a lot, averaging almost 29 takes per game. But one stat that favors them is they are #1 in FT%. Which is big when you need a cover. Montana is a nice story but they are undersized and rank 250th in defensive rating. Not a good stat versus a top 20 team.
PICK: Wisconsin Badgers -16.5
Game 4: #16 SIEU Cougars vs #1 Houston Cougars -28.5 (200 pm)
A battle of cougars takes place today in Wichita. But it won’t be much of a battle as Houston will flex their muscle on SIEU. The Cougars from Houston have shown the ability to blow out teams as they’ve won 6 games by 30 points or more. And have several other winning margins in the mid-to-high 20’s. HC Kelvin Sampson will be sure to motivate his team to play hard for all 40 minutes. I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas pedal until late in the 2nd half. SIEU has not seen anything like Houston and will have trouble scoring.
PICK: Houston Cougars -28.5
Game 5: #16 Alabama State Hornets vs #1 Auburn Tigers -30.5 (250 pm)
I saw enough of Alabama State on Tuesday to know they are sloppy with the ball and cannot guard well. They try to create havoc on D, which was their calling card the last few games of the season including the First Four game against St Francis where they forced 15 turnovers. But that won’t work against the #1 overall seed in the tournament. I see Auburn putting up 90+ points. And while it’s chalky, I also see a motivated Auburn team as they come in losing three of four. They need to regain their confidence and win with margin.
PICK: Auburn Tigers -30.5
Game 6: #12 McNeese Cowboys vs #5 Clemson Tigers -7.5 (315 pm)
This is a battle of two teams that like to run, or crawl, at a slow pace. Both McNeese and Clemson are in the bottom 3rd of the nation in pace. For McNeese, they have a concerted plan to get the ball in the paint and make quality shots. However, Clemson has a top 20 defense, ranked 16th in defensive rating on KenPom.com. And their interior is their strength with Schieffelin and Lakhin manning the paint. I like Clemson to slowly work their game and pull away late for the victory against a game Cowboys team.
PICK: Clemson Tigers -7.5
Game 7: #1 1 VCU Rams vs #6 BYU Cougars -2.5 (405 pm)
This is a one of the best matchups of the afternoon as we have fast-paced VCU versus slow paced BYU. But actually that’s just the opposite as BYU is 93rd in pace and VCU is 311th. It’s the optics though as VCU will pressure you full court for 40 minutes while BYU likes to operate in the half court offense. I believe the Rams pressure will be a problem for the Cougars, as they have shown issues with ballhandling when pushed. Both teams rebound well, both shoot well, but the turnovers will be the difference.
PICK: VCU Rams +2.5
Game 8: #9 Georgia Bulldogs vs #8 Gonzaga Bulldogs -6.5 (435 pm)
A battle of the bulldogs. One is happy to be here, the other is a traditional March Madness powerhouse. I’m going to take the powerhouse here as Gonzaga is playing their best basketball of the season heading into the Big Dance. They are extremely under-seeded, as they rank 9th overall in KenPom.com and 8th in NET. Georgia had some quality wins this season, beating Florida as their signature win. But they are just 3-7 on the road and 2-2 in neutral court games. This is also their first appearance since 2015. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has made the Sweet Sixteen in 9 straight tournaments.
PICK: Gonzaga Bulldogs -6.5
Game 9: #15 Wofford Terriers vs #2 Tennessee Volunteers -18.5 (650 pm)
Tennessee is one of my favorite teams. They are more than just defense, which they are know for, as they have elite scoring from three players; Chaz Lanier, Zakai Zeigler, and Jordan Gainey. They have a fourth player with double digit scoring average in Igor Milicic. So if they’re hot, and making their FT’s. this is a Final Four level team. Wofford got hot in the SOCON and ripped their way to a championship as the #6 seed in the conference. The Terriers shoot and make a lot of threes, ranking in the top 40 in the country in both categories. Wofford is playing with house money, and I expect them to keep their hot shooting going and give the Vols some trouble early.
PICK: Wofford Terriers +18.5
Game 10: #10 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #7 Kansas Jayhawks -5 (710 pm)
Kansas is easily the most disappointing team in the nation. They were preseason #1 but finished the season outside the top 25. But that part of the season is over and they can erase all the bad with a hot few weeks in the tourney. Afterall, they a top 5 team in talent which means the potential is there to make a run. As for the Razorbacks, they struggle shooting the three and don’t guard it well either. Their best chance is to force TO’s and score in the paint. As well as get C Hunter Dickinson in foul trouble. If they don’t do that, then it could be a long game for HC John Calipari.
PICK: Kansas Jayhawks -5
Game 11: #13 Yale vs #4 Texas A&M Aggies -7.5 (725 pm)
Everybody loves a good dog. And the Ivy League has produced some memorable ones of late, including the Yale Bulldogs. While this one seems chalky because of the past success of the eggheads up north, I am backing Yale for two reasons. First, the Aggies are poor FT shooters, shooting 69.2% on the season. Secondly, Texas A&M doesn’t guard the 3-point shot well. And Yale can stroke it, shooting 40% from the season from three. A&M will own the boards, but if they can’t stop the three and miss critical FT’s, then Yale has a chance at the outright.
PICK: Yale Bulldogs +7.5
Game 12: #11 Drake Bulldogs vs #6 Missouri Tigers -7.5 (735 pm)
This line screams Missouri. The public is hammering Drake but the line refuses to move. As of this writing, we’re seeing 71% of the bets and 62% of the money on the Bulldogs. This is my typical time to zag while the public zigs. But I can’t turn my eyes away from the story that is Drake. From bringing in a bunch of DII players, to running to 30 victories in HC Ben McCollum’s first year, I can’t go against the Dogs. Call this a heart pick, but I can see Drake making a run to the 2nd weekend. And that would start tonight with an outright over a good Mizzou team.
PICK: Drake Bulldogs +6.5
Game 13: #10 Utah State Aggies vs #7 UCLA Bruins -5 (925 pm)
Utah State had a great year finishing 15-5 in the Mountain West. They also had an impressive non-conference win by beating St. Mary’s back in December. But they faded down the stretch going just 7-5 after a 20-2 start. The Aggies have problems with size as they allow a 28% offensive rebounding rate, which is good for 162nd in nation. That could be a problem against a Bruins team that grabs 32% of their offensive rebounds. In the end, the fade by the Aggies and UCLA’s tough defense, ranked 17th in KenPom.com, should be enough to push the Bruins into the Round of 32.
PICK: UCLA Bruins -5
Game 14: #15 Omaha Mavericks vs #2 St Johns Red Storm -19.5 (945 pm)
The Johnnie’s are a great story. They ran through the Big East to an unexpected title in Rick Pitino’s second season with the team. St John’s is physical and will own the boards against an undersized Omaha team. However, this is a spot that everyone is on due to the nature of how the Red Storm won the Big East. Omaha can shoot the three which can keep them within reaching distance of this spread. And St. John’s is likely due for some sort of small regression here as they’ve covered 13 of their past 19 games.
PICK: Omaha Mavericks +19.5
Game 15: #12 UC San Diego vs #5 Michigan Wolverines -3.5 (1000 pm)
PICK: UC San Diego +2.5
Game 16: #14 UNC Wilmington vs #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders -15.5 (1010 pm)
PICK: UNC Wilmington +15.5