The NFL season kicked off with a thriller in Seattle. The Patriots suffered a tight three-point defeat to the defending champion Seahawks after their franchise QB inexplicably forced several late passes, resulting in three second-half interceptions.
Now, attention turns to Australia as the Rams and 49ers prepare to collide in the first-ever NFL game on the continent. Before kickoff down under, it’s time for the annual Bell Ringer Sports NFL Futures column.
Over the past four seasons, my futures market strategy has delivered a 23–9 record. After sifting through the latest data, it is time to put that analytical approach to work for the 2026 season.
For those new to team win totals and the futures market, keep these core guidelines in mind. While futures offer incredible entertainment value, they represent a long-term investment. Money committed today sits locked up for over four months before yielding a return in January. Protect your bankroll: invest a conservative 10–20% of your opening-season budget and diversify your card across standard win totals, division titles, conference champions, and Super Bowl longshots.
Beyond major head coaching changes and key roster moves, the analysis relies on seven fundamental principles:
- Pythagorean Win Percentage (Overperformed)
- Pythagorean Win Percentage (Underperformed)
- Turnover Differential / Fumble Recoveries
- Strength of Schedule
- Playoff Team Turnover
- Close Game Performance
- Quarterback Play & Head Coaching
I won’t bore you with the underlying metrics and raw data. Instead, let’s jump straight into the core picks and rationale. Hopefully, your favorite team lands on the winning side of these bets. If not, keep the optimism high—it’s NFL kickoff weekend, and nothing in professional sports compares to this.
#1: CHICAGO BEARS – UNDER 9.5 WINS (-120 DK)
The Bears had a magical first year under new HC Ben Johnson, winning the NFC North for the first time since 2018 by going 11–6. All that parlayed into a miracle comeback victory in the Wild Card Round only to suffer a heartbreaking loss to the Rams in the Divisional Round. Because of the coach and QB combo, the Bears are once again expected to contend in the NFC, with some slating them as a sleeper for the Super Bowl.
But I’m here to pump the brakes on the optimism in the Windy City. Ben Johnson’s antics put a target on the Bears’ chest, back, and head. His disrespect toward Green Bay and Matt LaFleur will serve as bulletin board material all year for the Pack. Furthermore, the Bears won seven of their eleven games by one score, turning plays that looked doomed to fail into game-winning heaves of glory while feasting on 33 turnovers (most in the NFL).
They fit several of my criteria for teams due for regression:
- Pythagorean win total: The math says the Bears should have won just 9 games, predicated on a small point differential of 26 points.
- Turnovers: The Bears led the league in turnover differential at +23 and recovered 67% of forced fumbles above league average. (For context, the 2024 turnover differential leader, the Buffalo Bills at +24, plummeted to +1 in 2025).
- Close game performance: They went 7–4 in one-score games, leaning heavily on favorable variance.
- Strength of schedule: ESPN ranks Chicago with the toughest schedule in the league based on 2025 opponent winning percentage, while Warren Sharp slots them at 6th hardest.
- Playoff turnover: The NFC averages 3 new playoff teams per year since 2020. With the Lions and Vikings improving, and the NFC North failing to produce a repeat champion since 2020, regression looms.
#2: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – OVER 7.5 WINS (-120 DK)
The Panthers won the NFC South last season with an 8–9 record, but it was the Saints playing the best football down the stretch. After starting 1–8, New Orleans won 6 of their final 9 games—including four straight in December—to finish 6–11. The mid-year QB switch to Tyler Shough paid massive dividends as he went 5–3 as a starter, while Kellen Moore proved his capability as a leader and mentor to young quarterbacks.
The biggest boost for New Orleans is drawing a last-place schedule in the NFC South, ranking as the 2nd easiest schedule according to ESPN and 3rd easiest according to Warren Sharp. The Saints also suffered through immense bad luck, going 3–5 in one-score games and posting a -4 turnover differential after a combined +12 over the previous two seasons. Look for a bounce-back year in a volatile division.
#3: LOS ANGELES RAMS – UNDER 11.5 WINS (+120 DK)
The Rams are everyone’s darlings heading into 2026. Trading for Myles Garrett was a stunner, triggering a domino effect that brought Aaron Donald out of retirement alongside additions like Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. These moves aim to patch a pass defense that ranked 19th in yards allowed per game and surrendered 27 passing TDs, vulnerabilities exposed when Sam Darnold threw for 346 yards in a 31–27 NFC Championship loss.
My concern is twofold. First, the schedule is brutal: 12th hardest per ESPN and 6th hardest per Warren Sharp, featuring an overseas opener in Australia followed by trips to Denver (altitude) and Philadelphia (1:00 PM EST / 10:00 AM West Coast time), plus a closing stretch against seven straight teams projected for 8.5+ wins. Second, as preseason Super Bowl favorites at 5–1 odds, history warns that only four preseason favorites have won the title since 1995 (matching the number that missed the playoffs entirely). With Matthew Stafford at 37 years old, getting to 12 wins is a tall order.
#4: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – OVER 10.5 WINS (-110 DK)
The Chiefs were never going to repeat their 2024 luck of going 11–0 in one-score games. That pendulum swung violently in 2025 as Andy Reid’s squad went 1–9 in close contests, plagued further by off-field distractions, dropped game-winning passes, and an ACL injury to Patrick Mahomes.
Despite the chaos, this remains a powerhouse that has won three Super Bowls in the last 7 years, anchored by Andy Reid and a healthy Mahomes returning for Week 1. Adding running back Kenneth Walker provides a trustworthy ground game to balance an offense that ranked 8th worst in rushing yards last year. With the Broncos due for regression after an outlier 14–3 season, the Chiefs will reclaim their dominant form in the AFC West.
#5: NEW YORK JETS – OVER 5.5 WINS (-105 DK)
The franchise with the longest active playoff drought may miss out again in 2026, but the roster has improved enough to clear a low win total. Last year’s defense famously recorded zero interceptions, but the front office responded well by trading for experienced QB Geno Smith, drafting offensive weapons Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper, and adding defensive talent like DE David Bailey and CB D’Angelo Pounds.
The metrics favor a rebound: the Jets led the league in turnover differential at -19 (teams leading this category historically bounce back by +15 wins the following year), went 3–5 in one-score games, and hold the 21st hardest schedule (ESPN). Luck and stability point toward a step forward.
#6: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS – OVER 8.5 WINS (-110 DK)
The Colts started 7–1 in 2025 behind an MVP-caliber stretch from Daniel Jones and a dominant Jonathan Taylor, only to fade down the stretch after Jones suffered an early-December injury that sidelined him for four consecutive losses.
With Jones fully healthy, a positive point differential reflecting a true 10-win caliber team, and negative turnover regression to correct (23 turnovers, including 9 fumbles lost), the Colts are primed to finish the job. In a division where repeat winners are rare, backing a quality head coach and high-end skill players makes sense.
#7: DALLAS COWBOYS – OVER 9.5 WINS (+110 DK)
Though the Micah Parsons trade created a media storm last year, Dallas pivoted sharply by trading for DT Quinnen Williams, drafting superstar safety Caleb Downs, signing edge rusher Von Miller, and trading for DE Rashan Gary. A historically bad defense in 2025 (32nd in points per game, 30th in yards, 32nd in EPA) underwent a complete makeover. That defensive turnaround alone should net them three extra wins and spark an NFC East title race with Philadelphia.
#8: MIAMI DOLPHINS – UNDER 4.5 WINS (-145 DK)
Miami features arguably the worst roster in the NFL, turning to Malik Willis at quarterback to lead a supporting cast devoid of experience. Former 6th-rounder Malik Washington projects as the No. 1 WR with just 540 career receiving yards, backed by rookies Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas as part of a total youth movement under new HC Jeff Hasley.
Compounding the talent deficit is the 2nd hardest schedule in the league per ESPN and Warren Sharp, featuring games against Buffalo (twice), New England (twice), the NFC North, AFC West, and a trip to San Francisco. Expect a long season in South Florida.
#9: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS – TO WIN AFC WEST (+200)
Last season, Jim Harbaugh flipped the script on the Chargers’ historic late-game collapses, guiding the team to a 6–2 record in one-score games and an 11–6 finish. While advanced metrics suggest minor regression from that record, Harbaugh’s culture change is only accelerating.
Bringing in offensive mastermind Mike McDaniel to unlock Justin Herbert’s ceiling alongside a top-tier offensive line and a breakout Year 2 from running back Omarian Hampton gives Los Angeles the balanced profile needed to dethrone Denver and Kansas City for their first division title since 2009.
#10: DETROIT LIONS – TO WIN NFC NORTH (+180)
Mr. Bite Your Kneecaps has struggled leading teams as favorites. So the anointing of the Rams as eventual SB LXI Champs, while watching Seattle get similar praise, can only help Dan Campbell settle back into his more comfortable role of underdog. While the Lions are slight favorites to win the NFC North, their odds are too good to pass up. At almost 2-1, they just need to outperform the Bears (who are in for regression) and the Packers (who they are in revenge mode against after losing both matchups last year).
The Lions finished in last place in the North last year but had the best point differential (+68) and highest projected wins according to Pythagorean theorem (10.5). But that misfortune is a win for their 2026 schedule, as they have the easiest according to Warren Sharp and 5th easiest per ESPN.
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