The NFL season is back, and the race for the Lombardi Trophy feels as wide open as ever. The excitement and anticipation of the first Sunday spread across 32 cities is palpable. This year, I’m bringing my NFL picks to Bell Ringer Sports after a successful run at Win Daily Sports, where I achieved three consecutive winning seasons picking Against The Spread (ATS). My approach is straightforward: analyze numbers, trends, and betting action to craft my picks. While Week 1 can be tricky due to limited data, the sportsbooks face the same challenge. Let’s kick off the new season on a strong note!
First Beer – New York Giants +6.5 at Washington Commanders
The NFC East opens with two divisional matchups. The first was played on Thursday night, as the Eagles beat the Cowboys in a close game. And that’s important when assessing today’s tilt between the Giants and Commanders. Division games, especially those early in the season, are often close contests. Then look at last year, when the Giants played the Commanders tough in both games. The first game was in Week 2 when the Giants lost 21-18. In that game, Washington kicked seven FG’s and didn’t get in the endzone. The Giants lost their kicker in the 1st half and were forced to attempt 2-point conversions and turn down FG opportunities, costing them several points and the chance to win the game.
The second tilt was a 27-22 contest won by the Commanders in MetLife Stadium. Washington did control the game, getting out to a 2+ TD lead. But had to hold on late to seal the victory.
Washington’s combined margin of victory in their two wins was just 8 points, yet they opened as 6.5-point favorites today. New York has made notable improvements this offseason, especially at QB and DL. While Washington reached the NFC Championship last season, they seem poised for regression based on their historic success rate on 4th downs and propensity to win close game (eight victories by one score or less). I’m taking the points today, as I anticipate the Giants’ D-Line causing significant trouble for Washington and for the Giants offense to be improved.
Second Beer – New York Jets +3 vs Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers and Jets traded QB’s in the offseason, well each team signed each other’s QB in Free Agency. But the story is, we are seeing added motivation for each signal caller today as Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields don new threads and look to prove their old team wrong.
I’m backing the Jets today for a few reason. First, Aaron Rodgers has lost his last 5 season openers. He hasn’t exactly made friends in his late years and I think there will be chemistry issues on offense for Pittsburgh. Which plays right into Jets HC Aaron Glenn’s hands. New York’s new coach loves to blitz, doing so over 39% of the time last year. And I don’t see him letting up today knowing there are mobility issues with a 41-year old QB.
Secondly, the public is all-in on Pittsburgh as we’re seeing over 60% of the bets and money pouring in on the Steelers. On Yahoo’s NFL pool, 75% of the picks are with Pittsburgh ATS.
There’s also some weather in New Jersey, though most of it should be out by game time. I still expect it to be cloudy and wet, which favors the running game. And in that case, New York has a significant advantage solely based on Justin Fields and his ability to create with his legs. Give me the J-E-T-S to shock their fanbase and win a close game today.
Third Beer – Atlanta Falcons +1.5 vs Tampa Bay Bucs
The Bucs captured their fourth straight division title last season and are a trendy pick to make a run to the Super Bowl from the NFC. The four straight division titles are the most ever in the history of the NFC South. And that accounts for the great New Orleans Saints teams from the early 2000’s. It just shows the consistency that Todd Bowles and the organization have developed in Western Florida.
But here come the newcomers. The three other teams in the Division are starting QB’s with 2 years or less of NFL experience. And they see one today in Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr. The Falcons signal caller has shown some edge, and moxie, in his preseason play. Which is exactly what HC Raheem Morris wants to see. They are coming into this game with an attitude and determination to show the Bucs they are here to stay.
Add to that, the Falcons won both contests against the Bucs last season, averaging 33.5 points per game in those contests. Tampa is coming into this game banged up, with Chris Godwin (WR), Tristan Wirfs (OL), and Christin Izien (S) all ruled out. While Hasaan Reddick, Vita Vea and Cade Otton are all questionable to doubtful. The Falcons, on the other hand, are relatively healthy coming in. That’s a huge factor when handicapping this game.
So I’ll back the hungrier and healthier team coming into today’s week 1 matchup in the ATL.
Last Beer – Green Bay Packers -1.5 vs Detroit Lions
One of the matchups of the day is the battle in the NFC North between the Packers and Lions. The Packers made a huge splash last week with the acquisition of edge rusher Micah Parsons. Green Bay was already closing the gap between them and their rivals from the east, but may have surpassed them with adding one of the best defenders in the league.
Detroit enters this season still recovering from a tough loss to Washington in last year’s NFC Divisional round. Their historic 15-2 record, the best in franchise history, ended far too soon. Over the offseason, they lost both coordinators to head coaching roles, which could lead to some challenges with continuity. With a Pythagorean win total of 13 and seven one-score victories, there’s potential for some regression. I anticipate they’ll face some adversity and take a small step back this year.
The Pack haven’t lost a home opener since 2012, winning 12 straight openers at Lambeau. I see that number growing to 13 today in Green Bay.
BONUS PLAYER PROP – BUCKY IRVING over 18.5 yards receiving
Bucky wasn’t the primary RB when Tampa faced Atlanta as both games occurred in October. But he racked up 9 catches and 52 yards in those contests. Now in a featured role, I look for him to blow past this number. He went over this total in four of his last seven games in 2024.