Week 1 of the College Football season continues on Friday with some marquee matchups. Auburn travels to Baylor in a battle of teams looking to gain respect, and a quality win. We also have Georgia Tech, a sleeper in the ACC, traveling to Prime’s country as they take on a Shadeur-less Colorado team looking for respect.
I went 1-1 on Thursday, hitting the South Florida Bulls and predicting a possible outright win. However, Nebraska’s offense was inconsistent again and failed to cover despite winning the game. Maybe the issue isn’t the coaching but the quarterback.
My tracker for the year can be found at this link. I’ll update after each day that a bet is placed:
Charlotte 49ers +3.5 vs Appalachian State Mountaineers (-120)
This line opened with Appalachian State favored by 8.5 points. Now it’s down to 3 points, and even less in some markets. So let’s exam why that’s the case.
Both teams made coaching changes after the 2024 season, with App State bringing in former South Carolina offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains and Charlotte hiring former Ohio head coach Tim Albin. The key difference is that this will be Loggains’ first game as a head coach, while Albin brings seven years of experience, including three consecutive 10-win seasons. That gives Charlotte a clear edge that bettors are keeping in mind.
Additionally, both teams have changed QB’s and will see an incoming transfer from the portal taking the snaps. App State brought in AJ Swann from LSU while Charlotte hands the ball to Conner Harrell who transferred in from UNC. Both were relegated to backup duty last season and don’t bring a ton of snaps to their team.
Looking at the injury report, there is nothing glaring for either side. So the explanation for the significant line movement looks to be bettor trust in the coaching experience along with a major turnover at App State. There is the home field advantage to consider too but the Mountaineers travel well and should bring plenty of fans to Charlotte.
I’m going to back the line movement, which looks like sharp money as more bets are coming in on App State but the money is with Charlotte. Let’s ground and pound with Albin’s run first offense all the way to the bank. Also consider the under here.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 at Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado turned a lot of heads last year, mostly thanks to their two standout players, Shadeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, the latter even snagging the Heisman. Beyond those two, though, the team struggled. The running game was a non-factor, and the defense couldn’t keep opponents from scoring. Now they face the challenge of not only addressing those weaknesses but also filling the massive void left by their two stars, who are off to the NFL.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has returning starters at the key positions on offense. And all of them are elite. Starting with QB Haynes King, the Jackets also bring back stud RB Jamal Haynes and top pass catcher WR Malik Rutherford. Last year was a resounding success for Georgia Tech as they knocked off teams like NC State and Miami and coming within two points to rival Georgia. Brent Key’s team ended the season on a high, winning the Birmingham Bowl against an SEC opponent, the Vanderbilt Commodores.
So we have one team trending upwards and looking to be a factor in a wide open ACC. And the other, trying to replace two stars and fix several glaring holes, all in one offseason. I’ll go with the Yellow Jackets here to dominate the ground game and control the clock on the way to a double digit victory.