Week 0 came and went without a real bang. Yes, there were some thrilling games. But from a DFS perspective, it was rather quiet. The top scorers were Luke Weaver (SJSU) and Davis Warren (Stanford). While we had one as a sleeper, we faded the other. But neither of those players were in the winning lineup. That instead consisted of two mini-stacks (EMU and Hawaii) and two top RB’s.
Week 1 Overview
Our focus shifts to Week 1, featuring a 12-game main Saturday slate. With only three point spreads under 20 points, oddsmakers project several blowouts. These wide margins complicate projection models, as starters may sit after three quarters. However, players will still find opportunities to rack up four-quarter volume, so do not shy away from the heavily favored teams.
We build our roster foundations and player pools around the slate’s highest projected totals. Week 1 features two games tied with a massive 59.5-point total:
Baylor at Auburn (59.5 total): Baylor drives the pace in this matchup after playing at the second-fastest tempo among all Power 4 teams in 2025. They averaged 31.1 PPG while surrendering 32.6 PPG (122nd nationally). Auburn played relatively fast last year, averaging 26.8 PPG (74th). Following the midseason dismissal of Hugh Freeze, Auburn hired former South Florida head coach Alex Golesh. Golesh led the fastest-paced offense in the nation last season and brought his USF quarterback and key transfers with him. Expect a high-scoring environment in this game.
Texas State at Texas (59.5 total): Both offenses push a relentless tempo—Texas State ranks 21st nationally in pace, while Texas ranks 22nd among Power 4 programs. Both teams thrive on big plays to drive scoring; despite ranking in the top 30 in scoring offense (Texas State at 36.6 PPG, Texas at 30.5 PPG), fast-striking drives leave Texas State 86th in time of possession and Texas 110th.
Here are the games on the slate with current point spreads and totals.
Quarterbacks
Now onto the player analysis. As always, QBs demand the main focus because they project for the most points in college football DFS. Plus, DraftKings’ Super Flex spot lets you start two of them.
I take an unconventional approach with my recommendations. I never simply suggest all the top-salaried players—you cannot build winning lineups that way. Furthermore, high ownership usually follows those top players, creating perfect targets to fade. This week, however, I like the top tier because two dual-threat QBs step into incredible game environments. We then identify key value plays below the $7,000 threshold, freeing up salary so you can pay up for dynamic RBs and WRs across the slate.
As always, best of luck and hopefully your screens are green by Saturday night.
Top Tier
- Arch Manning ($9,300, Texas): Dual-threat weapon who averaged 33.5 DFS points against non-AQ opponents last year. He surpassed 40 DFS points in three games last year, including the bowl game win against Michigan on New Years Eve. In that game in particular, he ran for 155 yards and 2 scores. He surpassed 30 yards rushing in 6 games but nothing was close to that output he had against Michigan. Faces a high-paced Texas State defense making the jump to the Pac-12.
- Conner Weigman ($9,000, Houston): Racked up 700 yards and 11 TDs on the ground last season. Returns key weapons Amare Thomas, Kolby Young, and Oregon State transfer Trent Walker to face an Oregon State defense that ranked 81st against the run. Oregon State is headed back to the Pac 12 coming off a dismal 2-10 season. Weigman had a bigger game in the air against Oregon State last year, leading the Cougars to a 27-24 OT victory. But that was mainly because Houston was down 14 points in the 4th quarter and was forced to throw more. Believe Weigman gets more on the ground than the -1 yards he amassed in 2025. RB’s are new so expect OC Slade Nagle to rely on Weigman a lot this game.
- Michael Hawkins Jr. ($7,300, WVU): Highly recruited dual-threat option named the starter by Rich Rodriguez. Faces a Coastal Carolina defense that ranked 132nd out of 136 teams in total defense last season. With the addition of the leading rusher in the nation from the 2025 season, Cam Cook, expect a heavy dose of read option against a weak Chanticleer defense. It’s not often we get high level dual threat QB facing a terrible defense for just $7300.
- DJ Lagway ($6,500, Baylor): Former five-star transfer returning to his home state in a fast-paced, pass-happy offense. Faces an Auburn defense that ranked 90th in the nation against the pass last year. Lagway starred for a local high school team in Willis, TX where he threw for over 5500 yards and 75 TD’s in his senior season. Add to that, Baylor had the 4th best passing offense in the nation last year, throwing for 310 yards/gm. There is something about going home and having familiarity, as well as playing in a fast paced pass-happy offense, that gets us excited for the former Gator this year.
Mid Tier
- Keelon Russell ($8,800, Alabama): Five-star redshirt freshman won the starting job in Tuscaloosa. Faces a tough ECU rush defense that allowed just 120.1 yards per game on the ground last year. And Alabama struggled mightily in the run game in 2025, ranking 125th with just 104 rush yards per game. So we may not be able to rely on a run game to ease Russell onto the biggest stage. For those reasons, including the pressure of starting as a freshman, I’m making him a lighter ownership play.
- Byrum Brown ($7,800, Auburn): Followed coach Alex Golesh from USF after finishing last year as the only FBS QB with 3,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. Opens the season against a porous Baylor defense. USF played at the fastest pace in the nation last year and I expect that to look similar in Auburn.
- JC French IV ($6,600, Cincinnati): Dual-threat transfer from Georgia Southern with over 5,700 career passing yards and 550 rushing yards. Faces a Boston College defense that ranked 128th overall and 123rd against the pass.
Sleeper
- Brad Jackson ($6,900, Texas State): Averaged 30.2 fantasy points per game last year with 744 rushing yards and 7 TDs. Accurate passer (71.4% completion rate) facing a Texas team that opens against Ohio State next week. Potential for the Longhorns to play a vanilla defense in DC Will Muschamp’s first game.
- Walker Eget ($6,700, Duke): Live-armed transfer from San Jose State’s pass-heavy system. Inherits an offense facing a Tulane team that ranked 126th in pass defense in 2025 and is undergoing a complete coaching rebuild.
- Mason McKenzie ($6,100, Boston College): DII Player of the Year from Saginaw Valley State who rushed for over 600 yards. Benefits from learning under Bill O’Brien, who has taken over offensive playcalling duties.
Fade
- Josh Hoover ($8,700, Indiana): Active FBS leader in passing yards and TDs, but prone to high turnover numbers (42 in 31 starts) with a heavily rebuilt supporting cast.
- Julian Sayin ($8,600, Ohio State): Elite NFL draft prospect who rushed for -44 yards in 2025, limiting his college DFS ceiling at a steep price point. Sayin surpassed 30 DFS points just twice last year, while going under 15 DFS points five times. I see a steady, solid game, from Sayin in Week 1. But not one that I’m willing to pay this premium for when there are better options above and below him.
- Anthony Colandrea ($8,300, Nebraska): UNLV transfer stepping into a Matt Rhule offense that ranked 82nd in total offense last year, facing an Ohio defense that stifled him in the Frisco Bowl. Colandrea threw for just 184 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 INT in that game.
- Dante Moore ($8,200, Oregon): Consistently scores around 20 DFS points but rarely breaks out for the massive ceiling games needed to win GPPs, opening against Boise State’s tough pass defense. WR Evan Stewart returns and enters the season fully healthy. So does Dakorien Moore, who had flashes and is a former five-star recruit. The issue this week is his opponent, Boise State, who posted the 15th best pass defense last year. They get after the QB and have solid defenders in the back 7.
- Rocco Becht ($7,500, Penn State): Former Iowa State QB moving to Happy Valley with Matt Campbell, but lacks the rushing upside and explosive numbers for high-end fantasy output. Becht wins games, but his numbers aren’t flashy, throwing for just over 2500 yards and 16 TD’s in 11 games last year. He had more games under 20 DFS points (6) then he did over (5). And he doesn’t run for a lot of yards, totaling just 111 in 2025. While Marshall had a terrible defense in 2025, 108th in yards allowed, I expect Penn State to have a balanced attack in Campbell’s inaugural game in central PA.
- Zeon Chriss-Gremillion ($6,200, Tulane): Dual-threat option with career turnover concerns (15 interceptions) and a short leash amid a major staff and roster overhaul in New Orleans.
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