For the first time since MLB expanded the playoffs to 12 teams, multiple Wild Card series are heading to a Game 3. Previously, only two out of twelve series ever reached a Game 3. Today, that number is surpassed with three crucial matchups that will determine the fate of six teams. The drama and excitement ahead are going to be incredible!
If you didn’t catch yesterday’s article, I went 3-4 on the day. But the Dodgers series sweep pushed that to 4-4. A Red Sox win stung, as a +160 dog could have really helped the bankroll. But there’s always today. And with that, overall we are now up 2.49 units to start the playoffs.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs DETROIT TIGERS (3pm)
Guards ball was on full display yesterday. Detroit left fifteen runners on base and was 1 for 15 with runners in scoring position. However, Cleveland left just three on base and went 2 for 3 with runners in scoring position. Completely outplayed for most of the game, Cleveland opened the floodgates in the 8th scoring 5 runs to break open a tie game. Once again, Detroit can look back at the huge mistakes, which is what will haunt them if they don’t win today. Having a runner thrown out at 3rd for the final out of the 4th inning prior to a run crossing the plate was a baseball sin (i.e. never make the last out at 3rd base). And ultimately, that one run could have cost them the series.
We’ve seen the Tigers collapse for the past month. And even though they have the better starting pitching today, I don’t trust their offense enough. We’ll back Cleveland in what will likely be a short outing from Cecconi and another long bullpen game for one of the best in the majors. And the bats will somehow do just enough, which has been their formula for the past month.
Note: Tigers SP Jack Flaherty is 0-3 against Cleveland this season. And he lost his final two starts of the year, both against the Guardians. I expect him to be on a short leash, similar to Dylan Cease yesterday. Which is why I like the under in his K’s.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS GAME 3 Winner (-132)
JACK FLAHERTY under 4.5 K’s (-122, 0.5 units)
CHICAGO CUBS vs SAN DIEGO PADRES (5pm)
I wasn’t too surprised that this series reached a 3rd game. What I was surprised about was the Padres pulling their ace, Dylan Cease, in 4th inning when he had just 69 pitches. While they have one of the best bullpens in the league, they’ve used a few pitchers in back-to-back days, including lefty specialist Adrian Morejon and setup man Mason Miller, making them likely unavailable for today’s final game. That’s a big factor when handicapping this win-and-take-all matchup.
On Chicago’s side, they are handing the ball to SP Jameson Taillon. The right hander had another solid season, posting a career low 1.06 WHIP. More importantly, he’s been fantastic the last two months posting a 4-1 record with a 1.57 ERA over six starts. San Diego will hand the ball to an ex-Cub in Yu Darvish. It’s been a rough year for the 39-year old SP, posting a 5.38 ERA and a career low K/9 and K%.
San Diego seems to have expended a lot to reach this point and will heavily rely on Darvish to provide 15 outs or more, which isn’t likely given his O/U for outs is just 9.5. This means they’ll need to tap into their good, but thin, bullpen early. On top of that, their bats haven’t had much success against Cubs pitching, which was already a concern heading into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Cubs appear to have the edge with a stronger bullpen, a better lineup, and the superior starting pitcher today. I also appreciate the Cubs’ resilience, as they’ve gone 46-26 following a loss.
NOTE: There has been feeling that Kyle Tucker needs a big postseason to increase his value in the FA market this offseason. What better way to do that than to come up big in a series clinching game? Though he’s only 1 for 6 in his career off Darvish, that has come with 0 K’s. I expect big things from the Cubs cleanup hitter today.
CHICAGO CUBS moneyline (-115)
KYLE TUCKER over 1.5 h+r+r (-112)
NEW YORK YANKEES vs BOSTON RED SOX (8pm)
This has been a terrific series so far. The drama has been second to none, often boosted by the aura of Yankee stadium. We saw critical errors, or mistakes, in this game by the visiting team that cost them a shot at sweeping out their bitter rivals. From a dropped ball in LF that allowed a run to score, by Jarren Duran, to the baserunning blunder in the 7th by Nick Eaton, the Red Sox let the little things cost them a chance a victory. So now they’ll have to rely on a rookie LHP, Connelly Early, to deliver in the biggest moment and on the brightest stage.
I already have money on Boston to win this series with plus money. And while I lean to them tonight, I’m taking an alternate approach to betting this game. If Boston is going to win, I believe they need to take the lead early and make the Yankees faithful sweat in their chairs. New York fans were miserable last night until the 8th inning when Austin Wells came through with the big hit. They are fed up with this bullpen and lack of defensive prowess, as well as many other things. Give them something to chew on and they will make life hard on their own team.
NOTE: Alex Bregman is made for moments like this. He’s been here countless times in an Astros jersey. He’s 3 for 7 in the series and consistently puts up quality at-bats, even when he doesn’t get a hit.