We saw some great baseball games yesterday in the start of the MLB Playoffs. Tarik Skubal was at the top of his game, recording 14 K’s against the Guardians and holding them to just one run. Garrett Crochet threw 117 pitches on his way to 11 K’s and a win in the Bronx. The aces stepped up and so did some of the biggest stars, here’s looking at you Shohei Ohtani. Which leads us to Day 2 of the Wild Card round. Elimination day for some, or maybe it’s not. We’ll break that down below.
If you didn’t catch yesterday’s article, I went 3-1 on the day with two of those wins being plus money bets. Overall, we are up 2.17 units to start the playoffs. We’ll look to build on that positive bankroll with these bets and leans.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS vs DETROIT TIGERS (1pm)
The Tigers nearly let the game slip away yesterday with a costly error in the 9th inning, but Cleveland couldn’t take advantage, failing to get the ball out of the infield to score a runner from 3rd with zero outs. The Tigers used up their biggest asset, Tarik Skubal, making it a must-win game to keep their chances alive in the series. Now, the tough task is finding a way to win another game with the pitching matchups favoring the Guardians. It all begins today with Tanner Bibee facing off against Casey Mize.
On paper, Mize had the better season, posting a 14-6 record and sub 4.00 ERA. And he was solid against Cleveland (everyone is), 1-0 in three starts and a 2.08 ERA. But Bibee turned it on in September posting a 1.30 ERA in four starts and recording a 3-0 record. And here’s the real key, the Guardians SP is 3-0 against Detroit this season with a stellar 0.95 ERA across 19 innings pitched.
I liked the fire the Guardians had yesterday in trying to claw across a run, or two, against the league’s best pitcher. I think that will roll over into today and I like the Guardians to push this series to tomorrow. We’re also laying a bet on Jose Ramirez to be a factor in the lineup today. He has great career numbers against Casey Mize, batting 0.500 with 2 homeruns against the Tigers SP. For Cleveland to win this game they’ll need production out of the top of their order, including Kwan getting on base. And if that doesn’t happen, well Ramirez could just do it all by himself with a ball that leaves the yard. For Cleveland to live another day, their star 3B will have to step up and I believe he will.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS GAME 2 Winner (-135)
JOSE RAMIREZ over 0.5 RBI’s (+142, 0.5 units)
CHICAGO CUBS vs SAN DIEGO PADRES (3pm)
The Cubs secured a victory in Game 1 of this series, putting them on the doorstep of a meeting with their rivals just to the north in the NLDS. But in doing so, they had to use their bullpen for 4.2 innings. Which makes this game much more valuable for Chicago as any additional usage may make their pen very short come Thursday. And that usage will come in the form of an opener, as the Cubs are using RP Andrew Kittredge to open Game 2. The plan will be to then use Shota Imanaga in a long reliever role to get to the late innings.
My focus today is on the Padres starting pitcher, Dylan Cease. He wrapped up September on a high note, boasting a 2-1 record and a 3.12 ERA for the month. He’s been even more dominant against Chicago, with a 4-0 record and a stellar 1.47 ERA over his last six starts against the Cubs. If you caught yesterday’s game, you saw how late afternoon shadows in Chicago can make life tough for hitters. The sun sets quickly behind home plate, creating early-game challenges for batters. With Chicago struggling to handle Nick Pivetta’s fastball early on, I’m counting on Cease to give the Cubs trouble picking up his high-spin slider.
SAN DIEGO PADRES GAME 2 Run Line +1 (-180)
DYLAN CEASE over 5.5 K’s (-145, 0.5 units)
NEW YORK YANKEES vs BOSTON RED SOX (6pm)
Game 1 in the Bronx was a nail-biter. The Yankees’ defensive struggles surfaced again when Aaron Judge’s lackadaisical approach to a base hit turned it into a double, eventually leading to the game-winning run. Adding to the drama, a puzzling decision to pull SP Max Fried in the 7th inning left fans questioning manager Aaron Boone. Despite this, New York had a golden opportunity in the 9th, loading the bases with no outs. However, much like Cleveland, they couldn’t deliver the clutch hit when it counted the most.
All along, I thought Boston was the scrappier team with more grit. And to win a game like last night can only multiply how they’re feeling in the visitor’s dugout tonight. They send out SP Bryan Bello who set a career high in innings pitched this year while recording his lowest ERA at 3.35. Bello had two terrific starts against the Bombers but his most recent was troubling. He allowed four earned runs in five innings of work. His troubles seemed to be command, as it was all September as he allowed 12 total free passes in his last five starts.
On the other hand, Yankees SP Carlos Rodon had a career year but also has trouble with command, finishing with the 11th most BB/9 amongst qualified starting pitchers. If Boston is able to put up long at-bats, that means the Yankees biggest weakness, the bullpen, will get exposed sooner than the fans would like.
The Bronx is already on tilt after last night. The players are now uptight. And the Sox are playing free. Give me the Red Sox to complete the sweep in New York.
BOSTON RED SOX MONEYLINE (+158)
Carlos Rodon over 1.5 walks (-116)
LA DODGERS vs CINCINNATI REDS (9pm)
The most lopsided series in the books looked like it on the field last night too. The Dodgers offense overpowered the Reds pitching. And Blake Snell looked like a Cy Young once again.
This series is over. The Reds are now 1-6 against the Dodgers this year and just can’t find a way to compete with the $350+ million payroll of LA. They are opting for Zack Littel to start tonight, who came over at the deadline and has posted an ERA over 4.00 since arriving in Cincy. The Reds seem to be pulling at straws and looking for unconventional ways to mix-up the Dodgers. On the other hand, LA is giving the ball to Yoshi Yamamoto who owns a 0.67 ERA in September.
I’m going to take the under here just because I don’t think the Reds will score more than 2 runs. And the Dodgers may just become uninterested and start focusing on their trip east to Philly.