The second weekend of the MLB season is upon us. And we have some absolute bangers as far as matchups go. The biggest one is less than a mile from where I write this article, as the undefeated Dodgers travel to Citizens Bank Park to take on the Phillies. We also get a rematch from the 2024 Wild Card round as the O’s travel to take on the Royals. And then there’s a matchup of two upstarts in the Padres (7-0) heading to the Cubs (5-4) which is a great early season test for both teams. So, get your popcorn ready because this ensures to be a great weekend of hardball.
Today’s Sweet Spot will focus on the DFS market and my favorite game bets and props. We’ve been hot to start the season so let’s keep that rolling into today’s big slate.
DFS Targets
PITCHING:
SHOTA IMANAGA ($9000 DK): The Cubs Opening Day pitcher will also get to pitch in their home opener today. Imanaga has had some control issues to start the season, issuing six free passes in two starts. But he’s getting swings and misses as his whiff rate is up 2% from last season, topping 30% and sitting in the 77th percentile of all starters. The biggest reason to pay up for the LHP today is the weather. Chicago will be cold, with wind chills in the upper 30’s for the game. And the wind is blowing directly in at ~9 mph for most of the game. San Diego has been great to start the season, but have the 4th highest BABIP and well over last season’s league average. The Padres also have the lowest hard hit rate in the league.
JUSTIN VERLANDER ($7500 DK): The Mariners didn’t do much to fix their offense during the offseason. And it’s showing at the start of the 2025 season. Seattle has scored four runs or less in six of their seven games this season. They are batting 0.172 as a team which is 29th in baseball. And one of their two series to date was against Oakland, who doesn’t exactly have the best staff in baseball. Verlander should be able to attack this free swinging lineup that strikes out at a 27% clip. He pitched well in his first start which was in the bandbox called Great American Field. Now he gets one of the most pitcher friendly parks in Oracle Park where the weather looks to be sunny and warm, which benefits a pitcher in the latter stages of his career.
RYAN FELTNER ($6000 DK): Hang with me here. The weather is a common theme in most of these writeups. And it doesn’t stop here with the Rockies and A’s. There is a possibility for snow flurries during the Rockies home opener today. Winds are blowing in at over 17 mph. And temperatures will be in the high 20’s. Doesn’t sound like hitting weather to me. And Feltner pitched well in his first start down in Florida against the Rays, going 5 innings and allowing just 4 hits. The A’s have a top heavy lineup that has the 10th highest GB% which meshes well with Feltner’s career numbers as he throws a mix of sinkers, changeups and sliders to go with his four-seam fastball. His career GB rate is 44%.
STACKS:
YANKEES: At this point, how can you ignore what the Bombers are doing? The Yankees have hit 22 homeruns in their first 7 games setting a modern day record for the MLB. They faceoff against Mitch Keller who allowed 23 longballs of his own last season. Keller allowed the 6th most hits in the NL last year, following a season where he allowed the 5th most. And his K rate has dipped in the past two years. He’s not missing many bats and allows a lot of hard contact. So this is a big reason to take the hot hitting Yankees, even though they are out of their friendly park confines, today in a stack against the Pirates. Based on their early season successes, I’ll look to get pieces of the following (who lead the team in WAR):
Aaron Judge ($6300 DK)
Jazz Chisholm ($5800 DK)
Ben Rice ($3100 DK)
Anthony Volpe ($4500 DK)
Austin Wells ($4200 DK)
Jasson Dominguez ($4200 DK)
RED SOX: I’m not necessarily a believer in the Cardinals, yet. They have the 4th lowest FIP so far in 2025. But they have the 10th lowest xFIP. And they’re doing that with the 5th worst K rate, at just 7.26 K/9. They now have to take their show on the road and travel to Boston where the weather looks to be warm and sunny. The Sox bats have come out somewhat slow, primarily due to a 28.7% K rate (4th worst in baseball). So the Cardinals staff should be the remedy they’re looking for. I’ll look to a combination of cheap and expensive bats so the likes of Jaren Duran, Alex Bregman, Triston Casas, Willy Abreu and Kristian Campbell will all be in play. I’ll also entertain wrapping the lineup with Ceddanne Rafaela who hits better at home as well as off RHP (which Eric Fedde is).
NOTE: If you haven’t heard, Bregman is a career 0.375 hitter in Fenway Park. It’s one big reason they went out and got him in free agency this year.
MLB BETS
NEW YORK METS (-130) over TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Mets unveiled the Juan Soto era last week with mixed results. What was thought to be their weakness, starting pitching, was actually a strength. New York’s staff comes into today with a 2.43 ERA which is 4th best in the MLB. That includes a great start by today’s SP Taylor Megill, who just 1 run and 3 hits in his first start last Friday against Houston. The offense has been an issue, hitting just 0.188 as a team which is good for 27th in baseball. But we know what they’re capable of. And with the environment of a rocking crowd at Citi Field today, I like the Mets bats to wake up and show owner Steve Cohen what he paid for.
YOSHI YAMAMOTO over 5.5 K’s (-145)
In the biggest game of the night, I’m toeing the rubber with the Dodgers starting pitcher and his K prop. The Phillies own a 19.4% K rate which is 5th lowest in baseball. But they also faced the Nationals and Rockies who don’t have anyone that has the stuff that Yamamoto has. The Phillies ended 2024 with a 22.2% K rate with a similar lineup to what they roll out in 2025. And against RHP’s, they add an additional strikeout potential with Brandon Marsh at the end of the lineup. Add to that the Dodgers SP struck out 10 in his last outing, and it is his 3rd start meaning his pitch count is likely close to 100 today.