Welcome to my first edition of Ring The Bell for 2025. As most of you may know, the bell is symbolic in the city of Philadelphia. From the Liberty Bell, to the bell ringing ceremony before 76ers games, to the large LED bell that lights up for homeruns at Citizens Bank Park, the bell means a lot to us. Which means, we are going to roll out our betting articles this year and term it simply Ring the Bell. Because isn’t that what you want to do as soon as you cash in those money plays!
For the past 3 years I’ve been writing these articles at Win Daily Sports. They have recently teamed up with DFS Army thus allowing me to freelance in my own world now. With no subscriptions or walls blocking the content. So it’s free advice, but one that’s been winning time and time again as I put in the time and research to bet not just the game but the numbers (it’s how we create expected value on sportsbooks lines).
We kick of the 2025 MLB Season today which brings me to my annual futures column. Last year’s big winner was the Oakland Athletics over 59.5 wins. Sometimes the best value is found at the bottom of the trash can. As was the case with our loveable losers out west, though they may be trying to change their reputation with the team the A’s put together in 2025.
I focused on a few key metrics that drove me to the below bets. First, for baseball, “luck” tends to flatten out over 162 games. However, I still lean heavily on Pythagorean theorem and look at outliers in teams’ record in “one-run games”. I also dove into other key stats including WAR from year to year and BaseRuns. The latter gives us some identity to what a team should have scored based on outcomes (i.e. homeruns, walks, SB’s, etc). It really tried to differentiate a Schwarber homerun (solo shot) followed by two singles vice a Harper homerun (three run shot) that followed two hits.
Futures are great opportunities to win money. But it does require you to have some of your bankroll held for months. So I always say this, invest 10-20% of your current budget as this way you’ll have plenty left for the actual games and props.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS OVER 80.5 WINS (-105)
The Bay Area is dying to have a good baseball team to cheer for. The A’s have taken their talents to Sacramento, on the way to Vegas. Since winning the NL West in 2021, surprisingly by the way, the Giants have averaged 80 wins in the last three seasons. Their peak was 81 and their cellar was 79. And when you look at this year’s win total, it falls right in that valley. Pretty smart Vegas.
But this is why I’m bullish on the Giants. First off, the Giants calculated BaseRuns and BaseRuns against suggests this team was closer to a 90-win team last season. That was due to some of their luck not necessarily turning their way. The Giants pitching staff had the 4th highest Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) last season. They also owned the 6th best FIP and 4th best xFIP. Which normally corresponds to BABIP. But San Francisco as a staff had the 19th best ERA and 23rd lowest WAR. Their strength was keeping the ball down as they had the best groundball percentage and allowed the third fewest home runs. Advanced stats like those numbers.
On offense, conversely they struggled with power (15th in HR’s) and getting on base (10th lowest in the MLB). What should help those numbers change are the offseason additions they made, as well as the return of key players. The Giants were able to land SS Willy Adames from the Brewers. They offered him the biggest contract in franchise history he brings over his power (32 HR’s in 2024) and plate discipline (0.331 OBP in 2024). They also resigned 3B Matt Chapman who popped 27 HR’s last year and will help boost the middle of the order.
But they key to the offense will be the health of Jung Hoo Lee who played just 37 games last year for the Giants. He’s penciled in as the 3-hole hitter between Adames and Chapman. He’s shown flashes again in Spring Training, so there is optimism the 26-year old will meet his potential this season.
What makes the Giants very attractive from a Futures perspective is their pitching staff. Led by Cy Young candidate Logan Webb, the Giants also have former Cy Young winners lined up to start Opening Weekend in Justin Verlander and Robbie Ray. San Fran also has some youthful power throwing options in the 4/5 spots such as Jordan Hicks and Hayden Birdsong. And if they could get Kyle Harrison right (he was opted to AAA), they have a staff deep enough to offset injuries and still maintain consistency.
I see the Padres dropping a step this year and San Fran should be able to absorb a few more wins in the Division (where they finished 26-26 in 2024). They just need to exceed last year’s total by one win, and based on their predictive measures and the key additions, I see the Giants in a better spot then they were in 2024. They’ll challenge for a Wild Card but fall just short with 84 wins.
CINCINNATI REDS OVER 78.5 WINS (-110)
The Reds biggest move this offseason was the signing of manager Terry Francona. Ever since his stint with the Phillies back in the late 90’s, he’s found ways to win at every stop he makes. Since his start in Boston, Francona has just two losing seasons 19 years. And those two seasons averaged 78 wins, with him never winning less than 76 games. His career winning percentage is 0.538 and that’s remarkable since his first four season with the Phillies resulted in a 0.440 winning percentage.
And the Reds have other reasons to be optimistic as well. First, they have star power in Elly De La Cruz. The young SS is a phenom that hit for average, power and has star level speed. There is talks of De La Cruz gunning for 100 steals this year as he finished last season with 67. He’s also coming into the season opener in quality form, finishing spring training with a 0.409 average and 4 HR’s.
Another reason for hope is that the Reds finished last year with 77 wins but had a positive run differential. Pythagorem predicted them for 81 wins. The biggest issue the 2024 Reds had was their performance in one-run games, where they finished a putrid 15-28.
Cincy also has a star-studded starting pitching rotation when healthy as Hunter Greene is poised for a breakout year and will start Opening Day. Following him is Nick Lodolo, who when available, has flashed tremendous stuff by posting a 10.7 K/9 innings in his first three seasons. Nick Martinez is a steady thrower who finished last season with a 3.10 ERA in 42 appearances (16 starts). And then there is offseason acquisition Brady Singer who started in 32 games for the Royals and posted a respectable 3.72 ERA.
The question marks on this team will be OF and Bullpen. The former is concerning as the Reds are relying on castoffs like Austin Hayes and Gavin Lux (likely DH) as well as players that haven’t fulfilled promise in TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley. As for the bullpen, it was already shaky finishing 2024 with a 4.09 ERA and allowing the 3rd most HR’s in the MLB. Their inherent closer Alexis Diaz is starting the season on the DL.
But to me, it’s sunny days ahead for the Reds. They have star power in De La Cruz and Greene. They have a season manager who is on the precipice of 2000 wins in the MLB. And they play in a division that is wide open this season. So I’m backing Tito and his boys to bring some accountability, and winning ways to the Queen City.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS OVER 71.5 WINS (-110)
Believe it or not, there is actually another team in Los Angeles. After being overshadowed for the entire offseason, and pretty much the last two years, the Angels are fighting to gain some recognition in the City of Angels. That’s been very tough of late, as the Angels have missed the postseason in 10 straight years. But they have some pieces, and added a few players, that give this team some hope that they can squeeze into the bright light of LA.
The lineup has some hope but most of that is centered around the health Mike Trout. He’s averaged just 67 games in the last four full seasons. If they don’t get 130+ games from him this season, this bet is likely doomed. But if they do, they surrounded Trout with seasoned professionals who have incurred MLB success in the past. In comes Jorge Soler and Tim Anderson who will be playing to prove they still belong in the MLB as both finished 2024 with dismal batting averages. The Angels also boast young bats that can rake in Jo Adell, Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto (starting year on IL), and Logan O’Hoppe. This team will be able to score runs.
The pitching is also a mixed bunch of veterans and young phenoms. In comes Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks who have over 400 career starts combined. Then there are young arms looking to break out in Jose Soriano (6-7, 3.42 ERA in 2024) and Jack Kochanowicz (2.-6, 3.99 ERA in 2024). The bullpen also has a similar look with flamethrower Ben Joyce setting up old reliable Kenley Jansen.
This team finished at 63-99 a year ago. While 9 wins would be a large jump, the talent is there for the Angels to improve on an team ERA that was 5th worst in baseball (4.57) and an offense that had the 3rd fewest runs scored and 3rd lowest batting average.
HOUSTON ASTROS UNDER 87.5 WINS (-110)
The Astros have been a mainstay in the MLB postseason for almost a decade now. No matter what they lose, think Gerrit Cole, they always retool and reload. But the losses of Kyle Tucker, Alec Bregman and Ryan Pressley look to be too much to overcome. The division is also loaded with decent teams and the Astros can no longer rely on beating up on the AL West (29-23 in 2024) or sub-0.500 teams (47-30 in 2024).