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Thursday wasn’t our typical opening day of the tournament. Only a few games came down to the last play. But we still had some quality upsets with McNeese and Drake pulling off wins as a double-digit seed. On the betting side of things, we went 8-8. And because of where the money was bet, we ended up +1.1 units. Here’s to hoping Friday brings us a few more wins, and more importantly, some more dramatic finishes.
BEST BETS (1.5 to 2.0 units):
- Baylor Bears +1.5
- St Mary’s -4.5
- UNC -1.5
NORMAL BETS (1.0 units):
- Alabama -22.5
- Grand Canyon +10.5
- Colorado State -1.5
FUN BETS (0.5 units):
- Mount St. Mary’s +32.5
- Iowa State -14.5
2025 Tourney Record: 8-8
Game 17: #9 Baylor Bears vs #8 Mississippi State Bulldogs (1215pm)
The SEC faired well on Thursday, going 4-2 overall. The problem we’ve seen is the teams at the bottom of the conference, have put up the worst performances. Texas was 14th overall and Georgia was 11th in the SEC. Which brings us to Mississippi State who is 10th according to the standings and finished tied with Georgia. But they’re here because of their 7-10 record in Quad 1 games, including wins Texas A&M and Ole Miss (twice). The issue I have, is they are 2-5 in their last 7 games, with both wins coming against the worst team in the conference in LSU. Baylor, on the other hand, is ranked higher in KenPom and NET. The Bears have improved as the season has gone on, going toe-to-toe with both Houston and Texas Tech of late. I’ll take a talented Baylor team to pull off the upset here to open Friday.
PICK: Baylor Bears +1.5
Game 18: #15 Robert Morris vs #2 Alabama Crimson Tide -22.5 (1240pm)
This is a hard one to handicap. Alabama’s defense is terrible as they allowed 90+ points on 8 occasions. But that’s against SEC competition. Robert Morris is ranked 172nd in offensive rating. And they don’t attempt a lot of threes, averaging just 21 from behind the arc per game. In this matchup, I like Bama’s big men to dominate the boards as they are the #1 rebounding team in the nation. That and their length on defense should be enough to win with margin.
PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide -22.5
Game 19: #14 Lipscomb Bison vs #3 Iowa State Cyclones -14.5 (130pm)
The loss of Keshon Gilbert for Iowa State is likely too much to overcome for the Cyclones to make a run at the title. But they still have enough offensive and defensive power to make a run to the 2nd weekend. Iowa State still thrives in creating pressure, as they are 7th in the nation with 9.4 steals per game. Lipscomb has faced two power 5 teams, and got smoked by both in Kentucky and Arkansas. They live and die by the three and Iowa State guards that line well.
PICK: Iowa State Cyclones -14.5
Game 20: #12 Colorado State Rams -1.5 vs #5 Memphis Tigers (200 pm)
We have a rare situation where the lower seeded team is favored. That is mainly due to the injury to Tyrese Hunter of Memphis who averages 13.7 points per game. Memphis has been stellar all season, losing just 5 games. But they had to sweat every game in the American tournament, trailing each late in the 2nd half. Colorado State, on the other hand, is on a heater, winning 9 in a row. Remember the name Nique Clifford as he leads the Rams in points, rebounds and assists.
PICK: Colorado State Rams -1.5
Game 21: #16 Mount Saint Mary vs #1 Duke Blue Devils -32.5 (250 pm)
Cooper Flagg is back in action today as he’s coming off an ankle injury in the ACC tournament. Duke has blown out almost everyone they faced in the past 2 months. They will win this one too, but I think the Mount can pose a few issues for the Blue Devils and keep it within the number. They are well coached and have some size and move the ball well.
PICK: Mt Saint Mary +32.5
Game 22: #10 Vanderbilt Commodores vs #7 St Mary’s Gaels -4.5 (315 pm)
The West Coast Conference is trending upwards after Gonzaga’s commanding win against another SEC team in Georgia. That game was over in the first 10 minutes as the Zags took a 30-5 lead and cruised the rest of the way. The Gael’s beat Gonzaga twice this season, and took them to the limit in their 3rd matchup. St. Mary’s size will be a problem for Vandy as they are in the bottom half of the NCAA in rebounding. The Gael’s have the 6th highest offensive rebounds per game at 12.4. The issue with St. Mary’s is they lack outside shooting but they won’t need that today with the advantage they have in the paint.
PICK: St. Mary’s -4.5
Game 23: #1 1 UNC Tarheels -1.5 vs #6 Ole Miss Rebels (405 pm)
This is another great matchup for UNC. Ole Miss likes to play at a fast pace and so do the Tarheels who sit inside the top 50 in possessions per game. The difference is, North Carolina has the shooters. Ole Miss is 160th in three point percentage while UNC is 64th. In a game that will produce open shots because of the pace, give me the better shooting team in UNC who is led by sharpshooter RJ Davis.
PICK: UNC Tarheels -1.5
Game 24: #13 Grand Canyon Lopes vs #4 Maryland Terrapins -10.5 (435 pm)
It’s the fighting Antelopes versus the fierce Turtles. A matchup you’ll probably never see in nature but will today on the hardwood. If you don’t know anything about Grand Canyon, just know their head coach who is tournament hero Bryce Drew from Valparaiso. He’s taken over a team that is fast and flies high. They can create defensive pressure and beat you with a spread out offense. Maryland has been great in the Big Ten and has a star in Freshman Derik Queen. They can match GC in size and have the better guard play. But I see the Lopes hanging around for a while in this one.
PICK: Grand Canyon +10.5
Game 25: #16 Norfolk State vs #1 Florida Gators -28.5 (650 pm)
PICK: Florida Gators -28.5
Game 26: #14 Troy Trojans vs #3 Kentucky Wildcats -11.5 (710 pm)
The Wildcats have been underwhelming most of the season. And they showed that once again in the SEC tournament, getting trounced by Alabama 99-70. Similar to Kansas, I find it hard to believe that they can just turn it around after a disappointing season. Troy plays hard, ranking 3rd in offensive rebounding rate. The Trojans either look for a shot in the paint or shoot it up from three, as they put up 25.5 shots from behind the arc per game.
PICK: Troy +11.5
Game 27: #10 New Mexico Lobos vs #7 Marquette Golden Eagles -3.5 (725 pm)
The Big East has shown they belong in this tournament. And the Mountain West hasn’t exactly shined, with Utah State looking abysmal last night. Marquette has quality wins this season against Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue and Georgia. They’re led by a fantastic PG in Kam Jones. They like to play 5-out to space the floor and let Jones cook. While New Mexico boasts a good defense, they do struggle offensively shooting 45.3% which is 145th in the nation.
PICK: Marquette -3.5
Game 28: #13 Akron Zips vs #4 Arizona Wildcats -14.5 (735 pm)
The Zips can score. They average 84 points per game which is 6th best in the nation. They also shoot the three well, averaging 10.7 makes per game (7th best in country). Akron will allow their share of points, but they have the profile of a giant killer. While Arizona is well coached and have the best player on the floor in Caleb Love, they will play fast paced with Akron allowing the Zips to play their hectic style of ball.
PICK: Akron +14.5
Game 29: #9 Oklahoma Sooners vs #8 Connecticut Huskies -5 (925 pm)
PICK: TBD
Game 30: #15 Bryant Bears vs #2 Michigan State Spartans -18.5 (945 pm)
PICK: TBD
Game 31: #12 Liberty Flames vs #5 Oregon Ducks -6.5 (1000 pm)
PICK: TBD
Game 32: #11 Xavier Musketeers #6 Illinois Fighting Illini -3.5 (1010 pm)
PICK: TBD